http://www.pokerhand.org/?1218043
I'm trying to figure out the math here. This is the weakest part of my game and i never bothered to learn it properly. I ususally just play by feel, instinct, and aggression.
hero stack = $50
villian stack = $51.85
preflop. pot equals = $3.25
flop. pot equals = $21.25
turn. pot equals = $76
I need to call call $23.75 more to win $76. So i'm getting about 3 to 1 on my money to make this call. Is it profitable to make this call in the long run? I figure I probably have 8 good outs.
8/46 = 17% chance of hitting and getting 3 to 1 on my money.
Can someone please explain the theory behind pot odds like i'm retarded?
I hear people talk about it all the time likes it's nothing and I never bothered to fully understand it.
If you think it's too elementary, you can post a good link for me and i'll read up on it.
thanks,
AppleSeed
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7 comments:
Your pot odds are 24:76 so basically 1:3. There are 46 unseen cards, 8 of which are your outs. So there are 8 that help you and 38 that don't. That's 8:38 or 1:4.75. Therefore your pot odds aren't good enough here to make the call.
There are loads of places where they give you odds like this. You definitely should try to commit to memory the odds of hitting a flush and straight with 1 card to come, as well as other odds too. I recommend printing out a sheet of odds from somewhere - I'll post o a link if I find one.
In this hand I think you got yourself into a nasty situation unnecessarily. It's a pretty dry flop so I can see why you went for the check-raise. I'd probably make it a little larger if you are going to check-raise. I just don't bother making too many moves like this unless I'm pretty sure the opponent will fold. Once he's called your flop bet, I think it's unlikely he'll fold the turn so I would check there and fold or call depending on his bet.
This post prompted me to post an explanation of pot odds on my blog here.
There's also a little hand reading I think you need to do in this hand. Specifically, is he going to do this with an overpair, a set, or would he need the straight?
I don't think many people are likely to need a straight there but if you run across one you have a lot fewer outs than you think. Regardless, you need to consider that a straight is possible.
Similarly, if he would do this with just an overpair, you have two more outs than you thought which would mean your chances of winning aren't 38:8 but 36:10 or 3.6:1 and you're getting 3.1:1 odds from the pot. Still not good enough, but something you probably want to consider.
Thanks dodgyken and rasputin.
I'm in a rush to get to work but i did skim your blog behind the idea of pot odds.
I'll read up on it and it looks like you understand it completely.
thanks again,
AppleSeed
Try holdem indicator or some odds calculator thats what I used to use. Or like phil gordon's rule of 2 and 4.
I tend to play my small PP when I'm OOP more passively. but on the river I would not call I don't think you're getting the right odds.
You already got some good explanations to go on, so I won't add much. As already mentioned, commit the odds for common situations to memory, it won't take long, and it will really help. Do keep in mind that when you're trying to make the calculation, you may need to adjust some outs -- when you hear people talking about the fact that not all their outs are clean, what they really mean is that one of them could come in, and you still lose your hand.
Also, for situations when you're getting it in on the flop, you can just about double your odds of making the hand, so the pot obviously doesn't need to offer you as much.
"I need to call call $23.75 more to win $76. So i'm getting about 3 to 1 on my money to make this call.
Is it profitable to make this call in the long run?
I figure I probably have 8 good outs."
you can count outs, and find your X:1 ratio, so just use this chart to answer your question: pot odds in X:1.
you have 8 outs, and are looking at just the river card. a chart look up shows you need odds of 4.75:1. you don't have them.
a call in this situation is a long-term leak.
Links:
i don't think this one is printer-friendly, but it's pretty complete:
big pot odds table
Don't worry man, this stuff becomes easy as you do it a bit. The easiest way for me to figure out percent to win is with two cards to come multiply outs by four, with one card to come multiply outs by two. That's good enough to start.
Pete
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