Saturday, February 23, 2008

Variance is crazy

I'm table selecting very well and my opponents are getting it in very light against me. They are also making bold bluffs OOP which gives me the opportunity to make a few Hero Calls.

Hand 1)
Preflop:
I raise his weak limp on the BTN to $4 with pock 7. BTN is playing very loose and passive. Running at 60/13/0.6. I"m running Loose aggressive.

Flop:
I bet 2/3 pot with my flop set on 7s As 8h. I expect to be called down light.

Turn:
I bet a scare turn card Jh. A oe str8 just hit and he possibly could have it. Even if he raised, i'm getting it in because he easily could be doing this with a flush, two pair, or just top pair.

River:
I bet 4/5 pot and get called. If he raised, would you call?

Hand 2)
Preflop:
I iso the weak limp with K10d. BB calls and UTG calls. BB is unknown but I have him at 21/15/2.2 over 900 hands. UTG is a loose passive running at 45/9/0.7 over 500 hands. I'm running loose aggressive in position.

Flop:
I check flop intending to see what they would do on the turn and make a delayed c bet.

Turn:
the board pairs and gives me the 2nd nut flush draw. Check to me and I bet. BB calls and UTG folds.

River:
BB leads 1/3 pot and it really looked like a blocking bet to me. I raise for value with the 2nd nut flush. I make it $40 and BB shoves. Can I really fold this vs a solid TAG who is unknown? I can't really beat anything but trip 3's and a lower flush.

Hand 3)
Preflop:
Standard raise when the table is letting me run them over. CO calls and everyone else folds. CO is running at 23/11/1.3 over 1k hands. CO also has a little history with me. I think he has me on his fish list because he sat directly to my left. Yesterday, he made a play with pock 5 on a Q44 2 flush flop and called me down lightly when I slow played AQo IP. Here is the hand.History

Hero Call 1)

Hero Call 2)

Hero Call 3)
Stacks:

UTG
($105.50)
UTG+1
($32.00)
Hero
($204.45)
BTN
($180.00)
SB
($165.75)
BB
($350.15)



Pre-flop: ($1.5, 6 players) Hero is CO

UTG calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.5, BB checks

I limp along trying to flop huge because everyone was playing back at me on this table. I was running loose aggressive and SB just bet showed a bluff with Q10o on a AAx flop against me OOP. I knew SB was capable of big bluffs. There was also little chance of someone squeezing because most of these villains were very passive except SB who was 3 betting light OOP.
SB was running at 28/17/1.9 over 174 hands.

Flop: ($4, 4 players)
SB bets $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $4
I had a nice read on SB that he lead weak hands, draws and c/r big hands OOP. I raise it small to see if he likes his hand. SB calls. I now think he's on a draw or is floating OOP. I don't think he does this with big hands because he would put in another raise on such a draw heavy flop.

Turn: ($18, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB raises to $34, Hero calls $24

I bet and get c/r to $34. I now think he has a big hand but I got stubborn and want to see what he will do on the river. I think he has a 7 or air. I don't think he has an overpair because he would had played it stronger preflop or on the flop.

River: ($86, 2 players)
SB bets $40, Hero calls $40

His 1/2 pot bet is designed to make it look like he wants me to call. I've seen this guy bet his big hands 3/4 pot or higher for value. I don't think he bet's this small with a monster. He either has trip 7 or air. I make the call and I'm right.

Final Pot: $166
Hero shows:
SB shows:

Hero wins $163 ( won +$81 )
BB lost -$1.00
UTG lost -$1.00
SB lost -$82.00

Update on 5k hand challenge.
5.5 ptbb/100 over 1500 hands.

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